ACRP 11-04 Prediction of Terminal-area Weather Penetration based on Operational Factors
نویسندگان
چکیده
Convective weather is known to reduce airspace capacity, but the extent of the impact is not well understood. Understanding how weather impacts terminal area capacity is essential for quantifying the uncertainty in weather forecast, determining how accurately the weather needs to be forecast, for developing an optimal mitigation strategy. Prior research has focused on the overlap between convective weather cells and air routes, but has not sufficiently analyzed the differences that arise due to factors such as aircraft types and pilot behavior. This paper examines the interactions between convective weather and aircraft trajectories in the arrival airspace surrounding Chicago O’Hare International Airport. Case studies based on operational data are used to determine potentially relevant operational factors, and a predictive model is built using these factors to forecast if a flight will pass through hazardous weather. The results of the analysis suggest that these operational factors are secondary compared to the weather itself in determining whether a pilot will deviate from or penetrate hazardous weather.
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